You’re staring at a half-finished manuscript, the cursor blinking like a metronome. Each blink taunts you. The words, the sentences, the paragraphs—they’re all wrong, but you keep going. You’ve invested too much time, too much energy, too much of yourself to abandon it now. You’re Hemingway, rewriting the ending to A Farewell to Arms thirty-nine times, hoping that this time, it’ll be perfect. But here’s the dirty little secret: it never will be. Not this draft, not the next. The ink’s already dried on your bad decisions, but you keep pressing on because you think you have to.

That’s the Sunk Cost Fallacy: the lie we tell ourselves that the past has more value than the future. It’s the whisper in your ear that says, “You’ve come this far; you can’t stop now,” even when every instinct is screaming, “Cut your losses.”

Let’s rewind the clock. Picture a 16th-century workshop in Florence. A block of marble sits in the center, untouched, neglected. For forty years, it’s nothing but potential—a rough, heavy lump of stone. Every artist who sees it thinks, “Too flawed, too far gone.” They walk away. But then Michelangelo walks in, chisel in hand, and decides to carve David from it. It wasn’t because he saw something no one else did; it was because he ignored the sunk cost. He didn’t care that the marble had been sitting there for decades, misused and abandoned. What mattered was what he could do with it now.

As creatives, we’re constantly chiseling away at our own blocks of marble—projects, relationships, careers. But unlike Michelangelo, we’re often blinded by the time, money, or effort we’ve already poured in. We trap ourselves in bad decisions, convinced that if we just keep hacking away, we’ll find the masterpiece hidden inside. The irony is, sometimes the true art lies in knowing when to stop, when to walk away, when to leave the marble as it is and find another block altogether.

The Why

Why do we cling to our failures as if they’re the last lifeboat on a sinking ship? The answer lies in a cognitive bias that’s as old as human decision-making itself: the Sunk Cost Fallacy.

At its core, the Sunk Cost Fallacy is the psychological trap that convinces us to continue investing in a failing endeavor simply because of the resources—be it time, money, or effort—we’ve already poured into it. It’s like holding onto a losing hand in poker, desperately hoping the next card will turn everything around, even though the rational move would be to fold.

Consider the story of Robert Falcon Scott, the British explorer who led a doomed expedition to the South Pole in 1911. Despite knowing that his team was dangerously ill-prepared and that the Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen had already reached the pole first, Scott pressed on. The thought of turning back, of admitting that the expedition had failed, was too much to bear. The result? Scott and his entire team perished in the Antarctic wilderness, victims not only of the harsh environment but of the Sunk Cost Fallacy.

In the creative world, this fallacy can be just as deadly—though the casualties are more often your time, your passion, and your potential. It’s the reason you stay in a dead-end project, convinced that just a little more effort will make it worthwhile. It’s the reason you keep editing that same paragraph, rewriting that same scene, long after you’ve lost sight of what made the idea exciting in the first place.

The How

Understanding the Sunk Cost Fallacy is one thing; escaping its grip is another. The good news? You can train yourself to recognize when you're stuck in its quicksand and, more importantly, how to pull yourself out. Here’s how to do it:

Recognize the red flags: Be brutally honest with yourself. Notice when you’re continuing with a project not because it’s progressing but because you’ve already invested too much. Identify the feeling of obligation rather than passion.
Reframe your investment: Shift your perspective from what's already been spent to what’s left to gain. Ask yourself: “If I hadn’t started this, would I still pursue it knowing what I know now?” If the answer is no, consider moving on.
Set clear exit criteria: Define the point at which you’ll call it quits. Establish measurable milestones or deadlines. If you haven’t hit them by a certain time, cut your losses and redirect your energy elsewhere.
Seek external perspective: When you’re too close to the problem, it’s easy to lose objectivity. Get feedback from someone detached from the situation. Often, an outsider can see the cracks that you’re too invested to notice.
Practice letting go: Quitting isn’t failure; it’s making room for success. Start small—let go of minor projects that aren’t working out to build the muscle. Over time, you’ll find it easier to walk away from bigger commitments that no longer serve you.

By following these steps, you can stop pouring time, energy, and creativity into dead-end projects. Instead, you’ll free yourself to pursue what truly matters, where your efforts will yield real returns.

Tips and Tricks

Even when you know the theory, applying it in the heat of the moment can be tough. Here are some practical tips and tricks to help you navigate the murky waters of the Sunk Cost Fallacy:

Conduct regular project reviews: Schedule periodic check-ins to evaluate your progress. Use these moments to reassess whether the project still aligns with your goals.
Use a decision journal: Keep a journal where you document your reasoning for continuing or abandoning a project. Reviewing these entries can help you see patterns and make more informed decisions over time.
Start with small wins: Practice saying no to smaller, less consequential commitments. This builds your confidence and strengthens your ability to let go when the stakes are higher.
Embrace the pivot: Sometimes, it's not about quitting but about changing direction. Be open to pivoting your approach if it means salvaging value from your efforts.
Visualize opportunity costs: Imagine what you could achieve if you weren’t tied down by a failing project. This mental exercise helps clarify the true cost of staying stuck.

Mistakes to Avoid

Even with the best intentions, it’s easy to fall back into old habits. Avoid these common mistakes when trying to break free from the Sunk Cost Fallacy:

Emotional attachment: Don’t let your emotional investment in a project cloud your judgment. Remember, your feelings are not reliable indicators of future success.
Ignoring feedback: Disregarding advice from others because it doesn’t align with your desires is a sure way to stay trapped. Be open to criticism, especially when it’s hard to hear.
Overestimating your ability to turn things around: Believing you can “fix” something that’s fundamentally flawed is dangerous. Recognize when the effort required outweighs the potential reward.
Focusing on the wrong metrics: Don’t measure success solely by how much time, money, or energy you’ve invested. Instead, focus on the tangible progress and outcomes.
Failing to set boundaries: Without clear boundaries, it’s easy to keep pushing forward aimlessly. Define what success looks like and recognize when you’ve crossed the line into diminishing returns.

Mental Models to Help You Overcome The Sunk Cost Fallacy

Sometimes, the best way to combat the Sunk Cost Fallacy is to rewire your thinking. Mental models—frameworks that simplify complex decisions—can help you make more rational choices. Here are some key models to keep in your creative toolkit:

Opportunity Cost: Remember that every hour, dollar, or ounce of effort spent on one project is time, money, or energy not spent on another. Evaluate what you’re missing out on by sticking to your current path.
The Regret Minimization Framework: Ask yourself: “Will I regret this decision in a year? Five years? Ten?” This model, popularized by Jeff Bezos, helps you focus on long-term satisfaction over short-term discomfort.
Marginal Utility: Assess the additional value of continuing with your current course. If each additional effort yields diminishing returns, it’s time to rethink your strategy.
Loss Aversion: Humans fear losses more than they value gains. Acknowledge this bias and remind yourself that letting go of a failing project is not a loss; it’s a step towards future gains.
The Endowment Effect: Recognize that you may overvalue your project simply because it’s yours. Detach yourself emotionally and evaluate it as if it belonged to someone else.

The Sunk Cost Fallacy is a crafty enemy, particularly for creatives who pour their hearts into their work. But with the right tools and mindset, you can escape its grip. Recognize when you’re clinging to past investments, reframe your perspective, and use mental models to guide your decisions. In the end, overcoming this fallacy isn’t just about abandoning what isn’t working; it’s about making space for what can.